jueves, 2 de agosto de 2012

Qué clase de día ha sido

El Gobierno trata de ganar tiempo por encima de sus posibilidades para -creo- llegar a una situación tan deteriorada que el grifo del rescate se confunda con ayuda al desarrollo. Si no, no me lo explico. A día de hoy, el Reino de España -Estado, CC.AA., etc- no puede afrontar sus vencimientos de deuda ya que el dinero lo necesita obtener de un mercado que le está vedado. Todas las opciones que enfrentamos son malas. En resumen, estas opciones son:
  • Pedir un rescate completo del país.
  • Otro tipo de opciones que alteren las condiciones de forma dramática.
Suicidio en Wall Street (1929). Vía | Worst Stock Market Crashes
Si el BCE comprara directamente nuestra deuda -monetizara deuda- la "presión" sobre nuestra prima se relajaría de tal modo que, quizás, podríamos llegar a financiarnos (o sea, endeudarnos para pagar deuda previa; dicho de otro modo: cargar la hipoteca en la tarjeta de crédito). Ésta es la solución que la gente creyó en la primera declaración de Draghi. Cosa que tampoco es una solución deseable: es cambiar tu reina por un alfil. Tu deuda cuesta menos pagarla a cambio de ser más pobre (todos los amantes de la devaluación monetaria no sé si serán conscientes de una importante caída de todo el valor patrimonial, depósitos, fondos, etc. de todo lo público y privado de España; se suele argumentar que quien sólo tiene deudas no se vería perjudicado, ya, pero quien tiene unos pocos ahorros o una propiedad, sí se vería muy perjudicado; hablo de la inmensa mayoría de la población).

En la segunda declaración de Draghi, este señor dejó claro que el BCE no iba a monetizar ninguna deuda soberana: a las bolsas les dio un ataque al corazón. El caballero dejó claro que si un país quería acceder a una línea de crédito, debía acudir al entramado de fondos y mecanismos creados en los últimos meses para ese menester. Hasta aquí se entiende.


Hace unos días, la pija del FMI dijo que aunque se interviniera a España, no se pedirían muchas más cosas porque España no puede tomar más medidas de las que está haciendo y las que ya tiene planeado hacer. Esto no es nada nuevo, ya que no nos queda otra que ir cumpliendo las recomendaciones de la UE una vez que ya acudimos al rescate de nuestro sistema bancario. Solo resta acabar de hacer la cuenta y acudir a un rescate total, algo que, políticamente, para un gobierno nacional es un suicidio. Algo que Rajoy no hará hasta que el fuego le suba por las perneras del pantalón.

Así estamos, en medio del mar, con Rajoy sin pedir el salvavidas y encima sin dejarte ir. Vaffanculo, Rajoy.


8 comentarios:

Teseo dijo...

Baja las pensiones y verás cómo ahorras. Ah, también hay que quitarle el voto a los pensionistas. Así es más fácil.

Pablo Otero dijo...

Quitar el voto a los pensionistas me parece tan injusto como tocar las pensiones de quienes ya han pagado por ellas.

Cosa que no quita para ya poner sobre la mesa un plan de transición para poner fin al actual modelo de Seguridad Social.

Monika dijo...

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Monika dijo...

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